MANILA, Philippines—Ariel Dominguez has been fishing for 16 years in waters considered to have the most diverse marine life on the planet.

But because of climate change and its threat of rising sea levels and lower fish yields, the 42-year-old fisherman from Nasugbu town in Batangas province is thinking that he may eventually abandon his job, pack up his belongings and move to higher ground.

“The ice [caps] in the North Pole are melting. If there’s an opportunity, we would transfer,” Dominguez said in an interview with the Philippine Daily Inquirer in Barangay Papaya, Nasugbu.

He plies the waters of the Verde Island Passage, which has been called the “center of the center” of the world’s marine biodiversity by the US Smithsonian Institute. But even there, the effects of global warming are starting to be felt.

“We no longer stay for long at sea because of the scorching heat. It’s really hotter now. We are afraid of having a heat stroke,” Dominguez said.

Study on climate change

According to a recent international study of seven countries in Southeast Asia, the entire Philippines is considered to be among the “most vulnerable” areas to climate change in the region.

“Based on this mapping assessment, all the regions of the Philippines … are among the most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia,” said the study “Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia,” conducted by Arief Yusuf and Herminia Francisco.

Yusuf and Francisco are with the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), an organization that supports research and training in environmental and resource economics and funded by the International Development Research Center (IDRC) based in Canada.

The study—which covered the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam—arrived at its conclusions after looking at the “exposure” and “sensitivity” to climate change of areas in these countries and their “adaptability” to these changes.

7th most vulnerable

“The Philippines, unlike other countries in Southeast Asia, is exposed not only to tropical cyclones, especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country, but also to many other climate-related hazards especially floods (such as in Central Luzon and Southern Mindanao), landslides (due to the terrain of the country), and droughts,” the study said.

It said the areas with the “highest vulnerability” are Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Cordillera Administrative Region and Bicol.

“The National Capital Region of the Philippines, which is densely populated, is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods),” the study said.

While it ranked Metro Manila as the seventh most vulnerable area to climate change in Southeast Asia, the study also included a map that showed the entire Philippines colored in orange indicating that all its regions were vulnerable.

“We better come up with projects for mitigation and adaptation. We have to set up systems to easily adapt to the inevitable,” said Paolo Pagaduan, a project manager of the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF)-Philippines.

Happening right now

Pagaduan told a seminar of journalists, held from March 23-25 in Nasugbu and organized by the British Council, that climate change would bring about, among other things, a shift in the typhoon belt for the country with stronger off-season typhoons.

There would also be shorter El Niño and La Niña cycles with an increase in “vector and water-borne diseases,” he said.

“One of the countries that will suffer the most and the soonest is the Philippines,” said Paul Brown, an international journalist who covers the environment for the British newspaper the Guardian.

“We are not talking about something that will happen in 50 years. Climate change is happening right now,” Brown said.

Philip Tubeza, Philippine Daily Inquirer